Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 65.75%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 15.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 3-1 (7.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Holstein Kiel win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.