Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 48%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Freiburg in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Freiburg.