Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.