Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 44.65%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 30.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.