Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.