MX23RW : Monday, February 10 21:38:37| >> :300:86500:86500:
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Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
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Stuttgart
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Wolfsburg
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 19, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Mainz logo

Union Berlin
2 - 1
Mainz

Amiri (5' pen.), Skov (24' pen.)
Kemlein (32'), Querfeld (86')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hollerbach (1')
Caci (26'), Bell (32')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Union Berlin 0-2 Augsburg
Wednesday, January 15 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Union Berlin 0-2 Mainz 05

It is difficult to overlook the impressive form of the visitors despite their defeat last time out, and they should be confident of victory. Union have struggled in the final third this season, and it would not be surprising if Mainz managed to keep their hosts at bay on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
45.48% (0.704 0.7) 25.86% (0.032 0.03) 28.65% (-0.736 -0.74)
Both teams to score 52.1% (-0.534 -0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.24% (-0.491 -0.49)51.76% (0.491 0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.47% (-0.429 -0.43)73.53% (0.42700000000001 0.43)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.29% (0.12 0.12)22.71% (-0.122 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.62% (0.177 0.18)56.37% (-0.18 -0.18)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.4% (-0.8 -0.8)32.59% (0.797 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.87% (-0.907 -0.91)69.13% (0.90600000000001 0.91)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 45.48%
    Mainz 05 28.65%
    Draw 25.86%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 10.97% (0.25 0.25)
2-1 @ 9.12% (0.044 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.13% (0.214 0.21)
3-1 @ 4.51% (0.038 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.02% (0.119 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.67% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.49% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 45.48%
1-1 @ 12.3% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.4% (0.144 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.11% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.86%
0-1 @ 8.3% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.9% (-0.144 -0.14)
0-2 @ 4.65% (-0.115 -0.12)
1-3 @ 2.58% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.91% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-3 @ 1.74% (-0.082 -0.08)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 28.65%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
20.0%
Draw
11.4%
Mainz 05
68.6%
70
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Mainz
1-1
Union Berlin
Amiri (53')
Kohr (7')
Benes (74')
Tousart (45+3'), Doekhi (52'), Gosens (90+8')
Feb 7, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Mainz
1-1
Union Berlin
Burkardt (45+8')
Ajorque (15'), Kohr (89')
Gosens (45+13')
Vogt (53'), Leite (79'), Haberer (84'), Doekhi (89')
Aug 20, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Union Berlin
4-1
Mainz
Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')
Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
2-1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern21173165194654
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen21137149272246
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt21116446281839
4RB Leipzig2110653629736
5Stuttgart2110563931835
6Freiburg2110382836-833
7Mainz 05Mainz219573324932
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach219483331231
9Wolfsburg218674335830
10Werder Bremen218673439-530
11Borussia DortmundDortmund218583736129
12Augsburg217682435-1127
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin216692027-724
14St Pauli2163121824-621
15Hoffenheim2146112644-1818
16Heidenheim2142152543-1814
17Holstein Kiel2134143354-2113
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum2125141946-2711


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