Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 26

Mar 15, 2025 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
2 - 2
Freiburg

Burkardt (34'), Hanche-Olsen (74')
Mwene (28')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gregoritsch (58'), Kubler (79')
Adamu (2'), Holer (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-3 Mainz
Friday, March 7 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Freiburg

All competitions

Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 RB Leipzig
Saturday, March 8 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.94%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 23.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
49.94% ( -0)	26.42%	23.64% ( 0)

Both teams to score 46.38% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.83% (

-0.01)

57.17% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.97% (

-0)

78.03% (

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.02% (

-0)

22.98% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.23% (

-0.01)

56.77% (

0.01)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.22% (

-0)

39.78% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.55% (

-0)

76.45% (

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 49.94%

Freiburg 23.64%

Draw 26.42%

Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
1-0 @ 13.44% 2-0 @ 9.89% 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.85% 3-1 @ 4.47% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.78% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.71% Total : 49.94%	1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 9.14% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.2% Other @ 0.69% Total : 26.42%	0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.71% 0-2 @ 3.88% 1-3 @ 1.76% 2-3 @ 1.29% 0-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 1.38% Total : 23.64%