Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 23

Feb 22, 2025 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
2 - 0
St Pauli

Jae-sung (67'), Nebel (90+5')
Sano (18'), Kohr (50'), Nebel (87')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Treu (24'), Van der Heyden (65'), Nemeth (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz
Sunday, February 16 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

St Pauli

All competitions

Last Game: St Pauli 0-1 Freiburg
Saturday, February 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	St Pauli
44.18% ( -0.01)	26.31% ( -0.03)	29.51% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 51.21% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.85% (

0.15)

53.15% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.28% (

0.13)

74.72% (

-0.13)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.07% (

0.06)

23.93% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.85% (

0.08)

58.15% (

-0.08)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.32% (

0.11)

32.68% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.77% (

0.13)

69.24% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 44.18%

St Pauli 29.51%

Draw 26.31%

Mainz 05	Draw	St Pauli
1-0 @ 11.18% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 2.71% Total : 44.18%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 29.51%