Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.14%) and 2-0 (5.63%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.