Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.83%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.