Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 51.12%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.