Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 16

Jan 11, 2025 at 2.30pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
3 - 2
Holstein Kiel

Remberg (23' og.), Gunter (38'), Grifo (74')
Kubler (58'), Gregoritsch (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Harres (85', 90')
Harres (37'), Gigovic (45+3'), Javorcek (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg
Saturday, December 21 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Holstein Kiel

All competitions

Last Game: Holstein Kiel 5-1 Augsburg
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.79%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
47.79% ( -1.41)	23.17% ( 0.38)	29.04% ( 1.03)

Both teams to score 61.41% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.35% (

-1.1)

39.65% (

1.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38% (

-1.15)

62% (

1.15)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.13% (

-0.93)

16.87% (

0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.1% (

-1.68)

46.9% (

1.68)

Holstein Kiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.87% (

0.13)

26.13% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.8% (

0.18)

61.2% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 47.79%

Holstein Kiel 29.04%

Draw 23.16%

Freiburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.22) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.11) Other @ 4.2% Total : 47.79%	1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.16%	1-2 @ 7.07% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 29.04%