Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 27

Mar 30, 2025 at 4.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
3 - 1
Mainz

Beier (39', 72'), Can (42')
Couto (45'), Schlotterbeck (89')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Nebel (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-0 Dortmund
Saturday, March 15 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 2-2 Freiburg
Saturday, March 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 59.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 1-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
59.44% ( -0)	21.05% ( 0.19)	19.5% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 57.4% (

-1.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.2% (

-1.17)

39.79% (

1.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.85% (

-1.23)

62.15% (

1.23)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.93% (

-0.37)

13.06% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.35% (

-0.77)

39.65% (

0.77)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.02% (

-0.87)

33.97% (

0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.34% (

-0.95)

70.65% (

0.95)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 59.44%

Mainz 05 19.5%

Draw 21.05%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.24) 1-0 @ 9.03% ( 0.36) 3-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 6.24% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 3.18% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.09) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.55% Total : 59.44%	1-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.2% Total : 21.05%	1-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.11% Total : 19.5%