Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Gremio	Draw	Vitoria
56.3% ( 0.58)	23.39% ( -0.39)	20.3% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 50.96% (

0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.02% (

1.36)

48.97% (

-1.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.94% (

1.22)

71.05% (

-1.22)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.79% (

0.71)

17.2% (

-0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.52% (

1.23)

47.48% (

-1.24)

Vitoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.54% (

0.58)

38.45% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.79% (

0.55)

75.2% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Gremio 56.29%

Vitoria 20.3%

Draw 23.39%

Gremio	Draw	Vitoria
1-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.12) 4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.8% Total : 56.29%	1-1 @ 11.12% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.38) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.97% Total : 23.39%	0-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 5.32% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 20.3%