Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 41.95%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.