Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 54.48%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 21.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Gremio
54.48% ( -0.33)	24.21% ( -0.06)	21.31% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 49.94% (

0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.93% (

0.65)

51.07% (

-0.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.07% (

0.56)

72.92% (

-0.57)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.35% (

0.12)

18.65% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.03% (

0.2)

49.97% (

-0.2)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.39% (

0.76)

38.61% (

-0.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.65% (

0.72)

75.35% (

-0.72)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 54.47%

Gremio 21.31%

Draw 24.2%

Fortaleza	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 10.15% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.17% Total : 54.47%	1-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.2%	0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.49% Total : 21.31%