Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 50.31%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 24.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.