Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 64.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 14.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.76%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Vitoria
64.26% ( -0.11)	21.55% ( 0.01)	14.19% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 44.63% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.88% (

0.17)

51.12% (

-0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.02% (

0.15)

72.97% (

-0.16)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.75% (

0.02)

15.24% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.08% (

0.04)

43.92% (

-0.05)

Vitoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.66% (

0.26)

47.34% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.26% (

0.2)

82.74% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 64.25%

Vitoria 14.19%

Draw 21.55%

Fortaleza	Draw	Vitoria
1-0 @ 13.57% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 12.76% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.01% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.99% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.04% Total : 64.25%	1-1 @ 10.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.55%	0-1 @ 5.4% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.03% Total : 14.19%