Brasileiro Gameweek 28
Sep 20, 2026 3.00pm
Arena do Grêmio

Gremio vs Palmeiras - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 11.30pm
Botafogo 3 - 2 Gremio
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Palmeiras

All competitions
Last game
Sep 12, 2026 10.30pm
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Sao Paulo
Goals scored
47
Top scorer
Jose Manuel Lopez

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.54%. A win for Gremio has a probability of 30.57% and a draw has a probability of 25.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (9.05%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Gremio win is 2-1 (7.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.11%).

Result

Gremio 30.57% (-0.06)
Draw 25.93% (-0.04)
Palmeiras 43.54% (+0.12)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.48% (+0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.82% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 22.18% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 55.04% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 44.96% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 31.48% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 68.52% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 17.71% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 82.29% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Gremio 24.4% (+0.06)
Draw 45.34% (+0.14)
Palmeiras 30.26% (-0.19)

Team To Score First

Gremio 43.26% (-0.15)
No Goal 6.21% (-0.03)
Palmeiras 50.53% (+0.17)

Corners

Over 8 64.2% (-0.13)
Equal 8 10.14% (+0.03)
Under 8 25.66% (+0.11)
Over 9 53.36% (-0.15)
Equal 9 10.84%
Under 9 35.8% (+0.13)
Over 10.5 42.65% (-0.15)
Under 10.5 57.35% (+0.15)

Gremio Goals

Over 1.5 34.43% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 65.57% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 13.08% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 86.92% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 3.93%
Under 3.5 96.07%

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5 76.69% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 23.31% (-0.09)
Over 1.5 44.6% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 55.4% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 20% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 80% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 6.87% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 93.13% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Gremio 30.58%
Draw 25.94%
Palmeiras 43.53%
Gremio
2-1 @ 7.84% (-0.04)
1-0 @ 6.97%
2-0 @ 4.3% (+0.04)
3-1 @ 3.09%
3-2 @ 2.5% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.15% (-0.05)
Other @ 3.73% (+0.01)
Total : 30.58%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.11% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.21% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 6.01%
3-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 0.2% (-0.01)
Total : 25.94%
Palmeiras
1-2 @ 9.72%
0-1 @ 9.05% (+0.04)
0-2 @ 6.37% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 4.67% (+0.04)
0-3 @ 3.85% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 3.2% (+0.02)
Other @ 6.67% (+0.05)
Total : 43.53%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 9
Apr 3, 2026 1.30am
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Allianz Parque
  • Marlon Freitas 44' goal
  • Arthur Gabriel 67' yellowcard
  • Felipe Anderson 71' yellowcard
  • Marlon Freitas 72' goal
  • Ramón Sosa 72' yellowcard
  • Lucas Evangelista 84' yellowcard
  • Khellven 84' yellowcard
  • Khellven 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Dodi 46'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Mec 46'
  • yellowcard Francis Amuzu 46'
  • goal Carlos Vinícius 54'
  • yellowcard Martin Braithwaite 76'
Brasileiro
Nov 26, 2025 12.30am
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Carlos Vinicius 25' yellowcard
  • Marlon 34' yellowcard
  • Francis Amuzu 45'+3' goal
  • Carlos Vinicius 61' goal
  • Francis Amuzu 76' yellowcard
  • Willian 85' goal
  • goal Facundo Torres 24'
  • yellowcard Anibal Moreno 60'
  • yellowcard Facundo Torres 66'
  • yellowcard Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 78'
  • yellowcard Agustin Giay 81'
  • yellowcard Abel Ferreira 83'
  • redcard Agustin Giay 84'
  • goal Luis Gustavo Roncholeta Benedetti 90'+3'
Brasileiro Gameweek 17
Jul 27, 2025 1.00am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 33
Nov 9, 2024 12.30am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Allianz Parque
  • Murilo Cerqueira 16' yellowcard
  • Murilo Cerqueira 16' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Gomez 32' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Gomez 32' yellowcard
  • 35' goal
  • Estevao Willian 73' goal
  • Estevao Willian 73' goal
  • Estevao Willian 74' yellowcard
  • Estevao Willian 74' yellowcard
  • Richard Rios 86' yellowcard
  • Richard Rios 86' yellowcard
  • Mayke 88' yellowcard
  • Mayke 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jemerson 26'
  • yellowcard Jemerson 26'
  • yellowcard Mathias Villasanti 28'
  • yellowcard Mathias Villasanti 28'
  • yellowcard Miguel Monsalve 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Miguel Monsalve 90'+3'
Brasileiro Gameweek 14
Jul 4, 2024 11.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Cristian Pavon 2' goal
  • Franco Cristaldo 69' goal
  • Rodrigo Ely 71' yellowcard
  • Jhonata Robert 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis 37'
  • yellowcard Kaiky Naves 41'
  • yellowcard Anibal Moreno 55'
  • goal Jose Manuel Lopez 74'
  • goal Estevao Willian 77'
Brasileiro Gameweek 24
Sep 22, 2023 1.30am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Joao Pedro 9' goal
  • Joao Pedro 9' goal
  • Rodrigo Ely 34' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Ely 34' yellowcard
  • Joao Pedro 45'+6' yellowcard
  • Joao Pedro 45'+6' yellowcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 59' yellowcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 59' yellowcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 86' redcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 86' redcard
  • Gabriel Grando 90'+9' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Grando 90'+9' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marcos Rocha 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Marcos Rocha 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Mayke 63'
  • yellowcard Mayke 63'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Menino 72'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Menino 72'