Brasileiro Gameweek 21
Jul 29, 2026 1.00am
Estádio Nilton Santos

Botafogo vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Botafogo

All competitions
Last game
Jul 26, 2026 8.00pm
Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Botafogo
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Danilo

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Jul 26, 2026 10.30pm
Gremio 1 - 1 Fluminense
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.06% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 19.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result

Botafogo 55.01% (+1.11)
Draw 25.06% (-0.23)
Gremio 19.93% (-0.90)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.11% (-0.24)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.41% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 28.59% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 46.32% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 53.68% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 24.54% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 75.46% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 13.61% (+0.13)
Under 4.5 86.39% (-0.13)

First Half Winner

Botafogo 40.82% (+0.01)
Draw 42.21% (-0.02)
Gremio 16.98% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Botafogo 61.36% (+0.01)
No Goal 8.22% (-0.04)
Gremio 30.42% (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 61.41% (-0.07)
Equal 8 11.6% (+0.01)
Under 8 26.99% (+0.05)
Over 9 49.21% (-0.07)
Equal 9 12.2%
Under 9 38.59% (+0.07)
Over 10.5 37.52% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 62.48% (+0.06)

Botafogo Goals

Over 1.5 47.88% (+0.84)
Under 1.5 52.12% (-0.84)
Over 2.5 21.85% (+0.57)
Under 2.5 78.15% (-0.56)
Over 3.5 7.88% (+0.25)
Under 3.5 92.12% (-0.24)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 54.88% (-0.90)
Under 0.5 45.12% (+0.90)
Over 1.5 20.56% (-0.70)
Under 1.5 79.44% (+0.69)
Over 2.5 5.39% (-0.30)
Under 2.5 94.61% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 1.15% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 98.85% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Botafogo 55.02%
Draw 25.07%
Gremio 19.93%
Botafogo
1-0 @ 13.37% (+0.19)
2-0 @ 10.23% (+0.30)
2-1 @ 10.23% (+0.09)
3-0 @ 5.45% (+0.22)
3-1 @ 5.19% (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.68% (+0.02)
Other @ 7.87% (+0.25)
Total : 55.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.88% (-0.12)
0-0 @ 8.22% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 4.31% (-0.07)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.07%
Gremio
0-1 @ 7.02% (-0.25)
1-2 @ 5.23% (-0.16)
0-2 @ 2.95% (-0.19)
1-3 @ 1.45% (-0.09)
2-3 @ 1.26% (-0.05)
Other @ 1.14% (-0.09)
Total : 19.93%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 2
Feb 5, 2026 12.30am
5
3
HT : 2 2
FT Arena do Grêmio
  • Carlos Vinicius 26' goal
  • Carlos Vinícius 26' goal
  • Francis Amuzu 46' yellowcard
  • Willian 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Carlos Vinicius 50' goal
  • Carlos Vinícius 50' goal
  • Carlos Vinicius 57' yellowcard
  • Carlos Vinícius 57' yellowcard
  • Tete 60' goal
  • Tetê 60' goal
  • Edenilson 68' yellowcard
  • Andre Henrique 68' yellowcard
  • André Henrique 68' yellowcard
  • Edenilson 79' goal
  • Douglas Moreira 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Dodi 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Arthur Cabral 17'
  • yellowcard Artur 19'
  • goal Danilo 36'
  • yellowcard Jordán Andrés Barrera Herrera 61'
  • yellowcard Jordan Barrera 61'
  • yellowcard Matheus Martins 62'
  • yellowcard Nathan Ribeiro 82'
  • yellowcard Marcos Souza 82'
  • yellowcard Nathan Fernandes 82'
  • yellowcard Marquinhos 82'
  • goal Danilo 86'
Brasileiro
Nov 22, 2025 10.30pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro
Sep 24, 2025 11.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 28
Sep 29, 2024 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
  • Bastos 14' yellowcard
  • Bastos 14' yellowcard
  • Bastos 86' goal
  • Agustin Marchesin 88' yellowcard
  • Luiz Henrique 88' yellowcard
  • Igor Jesus 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Igor Jesus 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Marlon Freitas 90'+10' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mathias Villasanti 65'
  • yellowcard Mathias Villasanti 65'
  • yellowcard Walter Kannemann 83'
  • yellowcard Walter Kannemann 83'
  • yellowcard Luiz Henrique 88'
  • yellowcard Agustin Marchesin 88'
  • redcard Miguel Monsalve 90'
  • redcard Miguel Monsalve 90'
Brasileiro Gameweek 9
Jun 16, 2024 10.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Gustavo Nunes 21' goal
  • Gustavo Nunes 39' yellowcard
  • Felipe Carballo 78' yellowcard
  • Felipe Carballo 81' yellowcard
  • Everton Galdino 81' yellowcard
  • goal Cuiabano 10'
  • yellowcard Gregore 45'
  • goal Junior Santos 57'
  • yellowcard Damian Suarez 83'
  • yellowcard Yarlen Faustino Augusto 83'
Brasileiro Gameweek 33
Nov 9, 2023 11.00pm
3
4
HT : 3 1
FT Estadio Nilton Santos
  • Diego Costa 6' goal
  • Diego Costa 6' goal
  • Junior Santos 29' goal
  • Marlon Freitas 46' goal
  • goal Everton Galdino 9'
  • yellowcard Felipe Carballo 25'
  • goal Luis Suarez 50'
  • goal Luis Suarez 53'
  • goal Luis Suarez 69'
  • yellowcard Joao Pedro 79'