Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 61.81%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 16.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.