Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 62.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.74%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 0-1 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.