Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 56.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 18.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.