Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.