Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-2 (7.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.