Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Lille had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (7.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.