Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 52.68%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 19.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.61%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.