Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 58.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 13.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.32%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.76%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.