Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 47.61%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 21.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (7.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.75%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.