Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.99%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.82%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.