Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 53.18%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 18.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.69%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.