Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.44%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.43%), while for a Barracas Central win it was 0-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.