Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.77%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.