Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 9, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Olimpia
0 - 4
Velez Sarsfield


Dominguez (55'), Ortiz (79'), Gonzalez (81')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Romero (25', 49' pen.), Mauricio Carrizo (56'), Pizzini (90+3')
Baeza (53'), Fernandez (71')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Olimpia and Velez Sarsfield.

Form, Standings, Stats

Olimpia

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Last Game: San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, April 2 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Velez Sarsfield

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Rosario 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
Saturday, April 5 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.77%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.

Result
OlimpiaDrawVelez Sarsfield
38.33% (0.261 0.26)28.95% (-0.107 -0.11)32.73% (-0.154 -0.15)
Both teams to score 44.76% (0.268 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.16% (0.339 0.34)61.84% (-0.34 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.38% (0.249 0.25)81.62% (-0.24900000000001 -0.25)
Olimpia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.77% (0.331 0.33)31.22% (-0.334 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.43% (0.383 0.38)67.57% (-0.384 -0.38)
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.08% (0.072000000000003 0.07)34.91% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.34% (0.075000000000003 0.08)71.65% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Olimpia 38.32%
    Velez Sarsfield 32.72%
    Draw 28.94%
OlimpiaDrawVelez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 12.68% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 7.77% (0.059 0.06)
2-0 @ 7.38% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.02% (0.05 0.05)
3-0 @ 2.87% (0.042 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.59% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 38.32%
1-1 @ 13.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 10.9% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-2 @ 4.09% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Other @ 0.6%
Total : 28.94%
0-1 @ 11.47% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-2 @ 7.03% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 6.04% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.47% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.12% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.43% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 32.72%