Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 35.46%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.04%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (12.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.