Argentine Primera Division
May 10, 2026 7.00pm
Estadio 15 de Abril

Rosario Central vs Independiente - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rosario Central

All competitions
Argentine Primera Division
Last game
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
Rosario 1 - 1 Tigre
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Angel di Maria

Independiente

All competitions
Argentine Primera Division
Last game
May 2, 2026 10.45pm
San Lorenzo 1 - 2 Independiente
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Gabriel Avalos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rosario Central win with a probability of 49.76%. A draw has a probability of 28.22% and a win for Independiente has a probability of 22.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win is 1-0 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.32%) , while for a Independiente win it is 0-1 (9.46%).

Result

Rosario Central 49.76% (+0.40)
Draw 28.22% (-0.14)
Independiente 22.06% (-0.25)

Both Teams to Score: 

41.39% (+0.24)

Goals

Over 1.5 62.72% (+0.40)
Under 1.5 37.28% (-0.40)
Over 2.5 35.02% (+0.38)
Under 2.5 64.98% (-0.37)
Over 3.5 15.48% (+0.25)
Under 3.5 84.52% (-0.25)
Over 4.5 7.7% (+0.17)
Under 4.5 92.3% (-0.16)

First Half Winner

Rosario Central 31.63%
Draw 49.56%
Independiente 18.81%

Team To Score First

Rosario Central 51.47% (+0.09)
No Goal 11.8% (-0.17)
Independiente 36.73% (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 48.96%
Equal 8 12.52%
Under 8 38.52%
Over 9 37.04%
Equal 9 11.91%
Under 9 51.05%
Over 10.5 26.67%
Under 10.5 73.33%

Rosario Central Goals

Over 1.5 37.64% (+0.51)
Under 1.5 62.36% (-0.51)
Over 2.5 14.05% (+0.32)
Under 2.5 85.95% (-0.32)
Over 3.5 4.23% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 95.77% (-0.13)

Independiente Goals

Over 0.5 52.96% (-0.05)
Under 0.5 47.04% (+0.05)
Over 1.5 17.43% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 82.57% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 3.86%
Under 2.5 96.14%
Over 3.5 0.79%
Under 3.5 99.21%

Score analysis

Rosario Central 49.76%
Draw 28.23%
Independiente 22.06%
Rosario Central
1-0 @ 16.07% (-0.04)
2-0 @ 10.59% (+0.09)
2-1 @ 9.19% (+0.08)
3-0 @ 4.41% (+0.09)
3-1 @ 3.56% (+0.07)
3-2 @ 1.72% (+0.03)
Other @ 4.22% (+0.13)
Total : 49.76%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.32% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 11.8% (-0.17)
2-2 @ 2.97% (+0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 28.23%
Independiente
0-1 @ 9.46% (-0.15)
1-2 @ 5.11% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.77% (-0.07)
1-3 @ 1.26% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.06%

Head to Head

Argentine Primera Division Copa Diego Maradona
Nov 16, 2025 12.30am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Argentine Primera Division Gameweek 16
May 3, 2025 10.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio El Fortin de Luduena
  • Agustin Sandez 16' yellowcard
  • Adrian Sporle 20' goal
  • Enzo Copetti 75' yellowcard
  • Victor Malcorra 78' yellowcard
  • Emanuel Coronel 83' yellowcard
  • Enzo Gimenez 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Nicolas Freire 11'
  • yellowcard Luciano Cabral 41'
  • yellowcard Ayrton Joel Medina 52'
  • yellowcard Federico Vera 56'
  • yellowcard Adrian Sporle 84'
Argentine Primera Division Gameweek 11
Aug 17, 2024 7.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Libertadores de America
  • Kevin Lomonaco 17' goal
  • David Martinez 34' yellowcard
  • Diego Tarzia 43' yellowcard
  • Ivan Marcone 44' yellowcard
  • Santiago Hidalgo 80' yellowcard
  • Federico Mancuello 90'+8' yellowcard
  • Federico Mancuello 90'+8' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Damian Martinez 24'
  • yellowcard Elias Ocampo 45'
  • yellowcard Kevin Ortiz 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Miguel Barbieri 54'
Argentine Primera Division Gameweek 5
Feb 14, 2024 12.30am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Libertadores de America
  • Gabriel Neves 24' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Neves 24' yellowcard
  • Federico Mancuello 32' goal
  • Federico Mancuello 32' goal
  • Ruben David Martinez 81' yellowcard
  • David Martinez 81' yellowcard
  • Ivan Marcone 90'+4' yellowcard
  • Ivan Marcone 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Lovera 36'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Lovera 36'
  • yellowcard Jorge Broun 81'
  • yellowcard Jorge Broun 81'
  • yellowcard Francesco Lo Celso 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Francesco Lo Celso 90'+2'
Argentine Primera Division Gameweek 5
Sep 20, 2023 1.00am
1
1
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre
  • Damian Martinez 22' yellowcard
  • Damian Martinez 22' yellowcard
  • Leandro Campaz 68' yellowcard
  • Leandro Campaz 68' yellowcard
  • Leandro Campaz 76' goal
  • Leandro Campaz 76' goal
  • yellowcard Brian Martinez 35'
  • yellowcard Brian Martinez 36'
  • yellowcard Cristian Baez 40'
  • yellowcard Cristian Baez 40'
  • goal Cristian Baez 45'
  • goal Cristian Baez 45'
  • yellowcard Felipe Aguilar 82'
  • yellowcard Felipe Aguilar 82'
Argentine Primera Division Gameweek 11
Apr 13, 2023 1.30am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre
  • Leandro Campaz 23' goal