Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 10

Jul 25, 2022 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Alberto José Armando

Boca Juniors
3 - 1
Estudiantes

Fernandez (11'), Rojo (58'), Villa (68')
Fabra (3'), Fernandez (20'), Zambrano (45+5'), Payero (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Morel (76')
Morel (28'), Castro (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Argentine Primera Division clash between Boca Juniors and Estudiantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Boca Juniors

Last Six:

Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 2-0 Boca Juniors
Wednesday, July 20 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	River Plate	13	18	26
4	Boca Juniors	13	6	24
5	Defensa y Justicia	12	7	22

Estudiantes

Last Six:

Last Game: Estudiantes 3-1 Barracas Central
Wednesday, July 20 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Racing Club	14	15	30
2	Estudiantes	13	15	28
3	River Plate	13	18	26

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 16.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca Juniors	Draw	Estudiantes
61.7% ( -0.12)	22.21% ( -0.01)	16.09% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 46.97% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.66% (

0.23)

50.34% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.72% (

0.21)

72.28% (

-0.2)

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.18% (

0.04)

15.82% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.01% (

0.07)

44.99% (

-0.07)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.79% (

0.31)

44.2% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.71% (

0.25)

80.29% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Boca Juniors 61.69%

Estudiantes 16.09%

Draw 22.2%

Boca Juniors	Draw	Estudiantes
1-0 @ 12.89% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.97% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 61.69%	1-1 @ 10.52% 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.73% Total : 22.2%	0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.51% Total : 16.09%