Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 2
Sep 29, 2026 2.00pm

Ethiopia vs Senegal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 2.00pm
Sudan 1 - 0 Ethiopia

Senegal

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 2.00pm
Mozambique 1 - 1 Senegal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Senegal win with a probability of 53.17%. A draw has a probability of 23.96% and a win for Ethiopia has a probability of 22.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (10.17%) and 0-2 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.66%) , while for a Ethiopia win it is 1-0 (6.67%).

Result

Ethiopia 22.87% ▲ (+2.61)
Draw 23.96% ▲ (+0.61)
Senegal 53.17% ▼ (-3.25)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.13% ▲ (+2.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.95% ▲ (+0.75)
Under 1.5 25.05% ▼ (-0.74)
Over 2.5 51.31% ▲ (+0.86)
Under 2.5 48.66% ▼ (-0.90)
Over 3.5 27.2% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 3.5 72.8% ▲ (+0.26)
Over 4.5 15.9% ▼ (-0.48)
Under 4.5 84.1% ▲ (+0.48)

First Half Winner

Ethiopia 19.09% ▲ (+1.74)
Draw 41.92% ▲ (+0.07)
Senegal 38.98% ▼ (-1.82)

Team To Score First

Ethiopia 34.39% ▲ (+0.83)
No Goal 7.01% ▼ (-0.25)
Senegal 58.6% ▼ (-0.59)

Corners

Over 8 23.62% ▲ (+1.30)
Equal 8 9.55% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 8 66.82% ▼ (-1.35)
Over 9 16.36% ▲ (+1.15)
Equal 9 7.26% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 9 76.38% ▼ (-1.30)
Over 10.5 11.17% ▲ (+0.95)
Under 10.5 88.83% ▼ (-0.96)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 1.5 24.04% ▲ (+2.70)
Under 1.5 75.96% ▼ (-2.71)
Over 2.5 7.88% ▲ (+1.08)
Under 2.5 92.12% ▼ (-1.08)
Over 3.5 1.9% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 3.5 98.1% ▼ (-0.32)

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5 79.64% ▼ (-1.29)
Under 0.5 20.36% ▲ (+1.29)
Over 1.5 48.48% ▼ (-1.99)
Under 1.5 51.52% ▲ (+1.99)
Over 2.5 23.68% ▼ (-1.79)
Under 2.5 76.32% ▲ (+1.78)
Over 3.5 9.29% ▼ (-1.02)
Under 3.5 90.71% ▲ (+1.01)

Score analysis

Ethiopia 22.87%
Draw 23.96%
Senegal 53.17%
Ethiopia
1-0 @ 6.67% ▲ (+0.30)
2-1 @ 6.23% ▲ (+0.82)
2-0 @ 3.06% ▲ (+0.42)
3-1 @ 1.9% ▲ (+0.22)
3-0 @ 1.82% ▲ (+0.44)
3-2 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.34)
Total : 22.87%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.66% ▲ (+0.52)
0-0 @ 7.01% ▼ (-0.25)
2-2 @ 4.32% ▲ (+0.33)
Other @ 0.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 23.96%
Senegal
0-1 @ 11.37% ▼ (-0.86)
1-2 @ 10.17% ▲ (+0.42)
0-2 @ 8.92% ▼ (-1.05)
0-3 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.54)
1-3 @ 5.09% ▼ (-0.33)
2-3 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 9.19% ▼ (-1.00)
Total : 53.17%