International Friendlies
Jun 9, 2026 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Dire Dawa Stadium
  • Binyam Belay 41' goal
  • goal Babatunde Adepoju 18'

Ethiopia vs Malawi - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Jun 6, 2026 4.00pm
Ethiopia 1 - 0 Malawi

Malawi

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Jun 6, 2026 4.00pm
Ethiopia 1 - 0 Malawi

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%) , while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.

Result

Ethiopia 42.74% (+0.22)
Draw 29.5% (-0.02)
Malawi 27.8% (-0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.15% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.51% (+0.24)
Under 1.5 33.49% (-0.23)
Over 2.5 42.08% (+0.22)
Under 2.5 57.92% (-0.25)
Over 3.5 22.63% (+0.15)
Under 3.5 77.37% (-0.15)
Over 4.5 12.22% (+0.12)
Under 4.5 87.78% (-0.11)

First Half Winner

Ethiopia 28.73% (+0.06)
Draw 49.74% (+0.07)
Malawi 21.52% (-0.13)

Team To Score First

Ethiopia 50.43% (+0.30)
No Goal 11.49% (-0.07)
Malawi 38.08% (-0.25)

Corners

Over 8 25.59% (-0.17)
Equal 8 9.78% (-0.04)
Under 8 64.63% (+0.19)
Over 9 18% (-0.13)
Equal 9 7.59% (-0.04)
Under 9 74.41% (+0.16)
Over 10.5 12.48% (-0.09)
Under 10.5 87.52% (+0.09)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 1.5 37.37% (+0.28)
Under 1.5 62.63% (-0.28)
Over 2.5 15.26% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 84.74% (-0.21)
Over 3.5 5.17% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 94.83% (-0.08)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5 60.14%
Under 0.5 39.86%
Over 1.5 26.12% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 73.88% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 8.67% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 91.33% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.53%
Under 3.5 97.47%

Score analysis

Ethiopia 42.73%
Draw 29.5%
Malawi 27.81%
Ethiopia
1-0 @ 12.53% (-0.03)
2-1 @ 8.37% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 7.58% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 3.69% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 3.31% (+0.07)
3-2 @ 2.26% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.99% (+0.08)
Total : 42.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.45% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 11.49% (-0.07)
2-2 @ 4.55% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.18% (+0.01)
Total : 29.5%
Malawi
0-1 @ 9.51% (-0.09)
1-2 @ 6.24% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.4% (-0.05)
1-3 @ 2.17%
2-3 @ 1.61% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 2.35% (-0.01)
Total : 27.81%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Jun 6, 2026 4.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Dire Dawa Stadium
  • T. Fitsumi 21' goal
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Jun 20, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Jun 5, 2022 2.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Bingu National Stadium
  • Gabadinho Mhango 10' goal
  • Gabadinho Mhango 34' goal
  • Stanley Sanudi 39' yellowcard
  • Micium Mhone 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mignot Debebe 33'
  • yellowcard Yared Baye 36'
  • goal Abubeker Nasir Ahmed 68'
International Friendlies
Mar 17, 2021 12.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • M. Mohammed 16' goal
  • Getaneh Kebede 45' goal
  • S. Dagnachew 56' goal
  • A. Nassir 71' goal