Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%) , while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.