Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Mar 27, 2026 3.00pm

Sao Tome & Principe vs Ethiopia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Tome & Principe

All competitions

Ethiopia

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ethiopia win with a probability of 54.14%. A win for Sao Tome & Principe has a probability of 24.86% and a draw has a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Sao Tome & Principe win is 1-0 (5.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.45%).

Result

Sao Tome & Principe 24.86%
Draw 21% (+0.04)
Ethiopia 54.14%

Both Teams to Score: 

53.62% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.92% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 21.08% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 57.62% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 42.38% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 35.69% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 64.31% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 23.24% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 76.76% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Sao Tome & Principe 27.76%
Draw 40.54%
Ethiopia 31.7%

Team To Score First

Sao Tome & Principe 45.29%
No Goal 5.63% (+0.01)
Ethiopia 49.08% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 12.09% (-0.01)
Equal 8 4.9% (-0.02)
Under 8 83.01% (+0.04)
Over 9 8.9% (-0.01)
Equal 9 3.19% (-0.02)
Under 9 87.91% (+0.01)
Over 10.5 6.82%
Under 10.5 93.18%

Sao Tome & Principe Goals

Over 1.5 27.99% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 72.01% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 11.1% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 88.9% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.86% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.14% (+0.02)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5 79.6%
Under 0.5 20.4%
Over 1.5 52.41% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 47.59% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 28.56% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 71.44% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 13.36% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 86.64% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Sao Tome & Principe 24.87%
Draw 20.98%
Ethiopia 54.13%
Sao Tome & Principe
1-0 @ 5.85% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 5.7%
2-0 @ 3.47% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 2.46%
3-2 @ 1.96%
3-0 @ 1.7%
Other @ 3.73% (-0.02)
Total : 24.87%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.45% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.63% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.65%
3-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.98%
Ethiopia
0-1 @ 9.58% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 8.84%
0-2 @ 8.4% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 5.69%
1-3 @ 5.32% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.07% (-0.02)
Other @ 13.23% (-0.01)
Total : 54.13%