International Friendlies
Jun 6, 2026 1.00am
Dire Dawa Stadium

Ethiopia vs Malawi - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions

Malawi

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Mar 31, 2026 2.00pm
Botswana 1 - 0 Malawi

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ethiopia win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Malawi has a probability of 29.69% and a draw has a probability of 28.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Malawi win is 0-1 (9.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.3%).

Result

Ethiopia 42.12% (-0.11)
Draw 28.22% (-0.02)
Malawi 29.69% (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.15% (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.27% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 31.73% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 44% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 56% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 23.79% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 76.21% (+0.06)
Over 4.5 12.82% (-0.05)
Under 4.5 87.18% (+0.06)

First Half Winner

Ethiopia 27.9% (+0.08)
Draw 49.2% (-0.08)
Malawi 22.9%

Team To Score First

Ethiopia 49.67% (-0.06)
No Goal 10.26%
Malawi 40.07% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 25.58% (-0.14)
Equal 8 9.56% (-0.03)
Under 8 64.86% (+0.16)
Over 9 18.16% (-0.11)
Equal 9 7.41% (-0.05)
Under 9 74.42% (+0.13)
Over 10.5 12.77% (-0.07)
Under 10.5 87.23% (+0.07)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 1.5 37.63% (-0.09)
Under 1.5 62.37% (+0.09)
Over 2.5 15.49% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 84.51% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 5.17% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 94.83% (+0.04)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5 62.32% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 37.68% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 28.18% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 71.82% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 9.61% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 90.39% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.78%
Under 3.5 97.22%

Score analysis

Ethiopia 42.12%
Draw 28.22%
Malawi 29.69%
Ethiopia
1-0 @ 11.93%
2-1 @ 8.46%
2-0 @ 7.21% (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.81% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 3.28%
3-2 @ 2.4% (-0.02)
Other @ 5.03% (-0.05)
Total : 42.12%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.3% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 10.26%
2-2 @ 4.69% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 28.22%
Malawi
0-1 @ 9.57% (+0.02)
1-2 @ 6.72% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 4.76% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.46%
2-3 @ 1.78%
0-3 @ 1.76% (+0.04)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 29.69%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Jun 20, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Jun 5, 2022 2.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Bingu National Stadium
  • Gabadinho Mhango 10' goal
  • Gabadinho Mhango 34' goal
  • Stanley Sanudi 39' yellowcard
  • Micium Mhone 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mignot Debebe 33'
  • yellowcard Yared Baye 36'
  • goal Abubeker Nasir Ahmed 68'
International Friendlies
Mar 17, 2021 12.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • M. Mohammed 16' goal
  • Getaneh Kebede 45' goal
  • S. Dagnachew 56' goal
  • A. Nassir 71' goal