Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 2.00pm
Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto

Mozambique vs Senegal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mozambique

All competitions

Senegal

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Senegal win with a probability of 58.72%. A draw has a probability of 23.01% and a win for Mozambique has a probability of 18.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.98%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.8%) , while for a Mozambique win it is 1-0 (6.54%).

Result

Mozambique 18.3% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 23.01%
Senegal 58.72% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.96%

Goals

Over 1.5 72.42% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 27.58% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 48.09% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 51.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 25.96% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 74.04% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 4.5 15.27% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 84.73% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Mozambique 16.57%
Draw 42.52%
Senegal 40.91%

Team To Score First

Mozambique 31.39%
No Goal 7.77% ▼ (-0.02)
Senegal 60.84% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 27.92%
Equal 8 10.37%
Under 8 61.71%
Over 9 19.69% ▲ (+0.02)
Equal 9 8.24%
Under 9 72.08%
Over 10.5 13.58%
Under 10.5 86.42%

Mozambique Goals

Over 1.5 18.67% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 81.33% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 5.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 94.85% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 1.08%
Under 3.5 98.92%

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5 81.03% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 0.5 18.97% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 50.88% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 49.12% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 25.44% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 2.5 74.56% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 10.1% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 89.9% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Mozambique 18.29%
Draw 23.01%
Senegal 58.73%
Mozambique
1-0 @ 6.54% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 4.71% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 2.55% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 1.34%
3-0 @ 1.09% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.01% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.05%
Total : 18.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.8%
0-0 @ 7.77% ▼ (-0.02)
2-2 @ 3.78%
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 23.01%
Senegal
0-1 @ 13.3% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 10.98% ▲ (+0.05)
1-2 @ 9.67%
0-3 @ 6.66% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 5.57%
2-3 @ 2.48% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 10.07% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 58.73%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Mar 28, 2023 5.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • goal Boulaye Dia 18'
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Mar 24, 2023 7.00pm
5
1
HT : 4 0
FT
  • Youssouf Sabaly 9' goal
  • Sadio Mane 15' goal
  • Iliman Ndiaye 32' goal
  • Boulaye Dia 39' goal
  • Habib Diallo 88' goal
  • goal Gildo Vilanculos 48'
COSAFA Cup
Jul 17, 2022 2.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Moses Mabhida Stadium
  • Foia 36' yellowcard
  • Lau King 90'+3' goal
  • yellowcard Alasan Faye 25'
  • yellowcard Elhadj Mane 60'
  • goal Jean Diouf 78'
  • yellowcard Jean Diouf 88'
COSAFA Cup
Jul 9, 2021 2.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium
  • El Hadji Madicke Kane 15' yellowcard
  • P 63' goal
  • W 82' yellowcard
  • M 86' yellowcard