Australian A-League | Gameweek 29

May 4, 2025 at 8am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
1 - 1
Newcastle Jets

Bos (47')
Valadon (67')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Taylor (83')
Mizunuma (60')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 1-2 Victory
Friday, April 25 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Newcastle Jets

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 0-1 Western Sydney
Saturday, April 26 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 66.44%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.84%) and 3-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Newcastle Jets
66.44% ( -0.39)	17.49% ( 0.15)	16.07% ( 0.24)

Both teams to score 63.74% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.47% (

-0.26)

28.53% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.6% (

-0.32)

49.4% (

0.32)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.94% (

-0.15)

8.05% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.66% (

-0.37)

28.34% (

0.37)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.32% (

0.1)

30.68% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.07% (

0.11)

66.93% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 66.44%

Newcastle Jets 16.07%

Draw 17.49%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Newcastle Jets
2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.03% Total : 66.44%	1-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.81% ( 0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 17.49%	1-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.22% Total : 16.07%