Australian A-League | Gameweek 28

Apr 25, 2025 at 10.35am UK

Campbelltown Stadium

Macarthur
1 - 2
Victory

Ikonomidis (68')
Brattan (56')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Teague (4'), Bos (36')
Arzani (15'), Bos (32'), Jackson (74'), Duncan (90+5')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Central Coast 2-2 Macarthur
Sunday, April 20 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 0-2 Auckland FC
Saturday, April 19 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.33%) and 0-1 (5.12%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
35.01% ( -0.32)	21.76% ( 0.05)	43.23% ( 0.26)

Both teams to score 69.76% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.06% (

-0.36)

29.94% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.88% (

-0.44)

51.12% (

0.44)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.87% (

-0.31)

18.13% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.91% (

-0.54)

49.09% (

0.53)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.21% (

-0.05)

14.79% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.95% (

-0.1)

43.05% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Macarthur 35.01%

Melbourne Victory 43.23%

Draw 21.76%

Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.91% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 35.01%	1-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.6% Total : 21.76%	1-2 @ 8.36% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 5.33% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 3.42% Total : 43.23%