Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.