Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 48.21%. A win for Lahti had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Lahti win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.