Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KuPS win with a probability of 62.7%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 17.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a KuPS win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a HJK Helsinki win it was 1-2 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that KuPS would win this match.