Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vaasan Palloseura would win this match.