Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KuPS win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a KuPS win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that KuPS would win this match.