Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Lahti had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Lahti win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.