Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 83.66%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.27%) and 1-0 (10.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (2.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
83.66% ( 0.02) | 11.63% ( -0.01) | 4.7% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 37.31% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.7% ( 0.04) | 37.3% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.48% ( 0.04) | 59.51% ( -0.04) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.43% ( 0.01) | 6.56% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.55% ( 0.04) | 24.44% ( -0.03) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
39.93% ( -0) | 60.07% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
9.31% ( -0) | 90.68% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 14.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 13.27% 1-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.45% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0) 5-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.61% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.51% ( 0) 6-0 @ 2.24% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.72% 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 83.64% | 1-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 1.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.32% Total : 11.63% | 0-1 @ 2.01% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 1.29% Total : 4.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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